Auto Sales Expected to Cool Down in January, Edmunds Forecasts

Staff Report

Thursday, January 25th, 2018

Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,121,932 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.7 million. This reflects a 29.8 percent decrease in sales from December 2017 and a 1.4 percent decrease from January 2017.

"In January, automakers are expected to pull the reins in on the more generous incentive programs that we saw at the end of 2017," said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds. "However, it's typical to see a slowdown at dealerships in January following the high-selling holiday months. This isn't necessarily a solid indicator of the direction that the year is headed in terms of overall sales."

Sluggish January sales are also expected as a result of severe winter weather in many parts of the country.

"The bomb cyclone that tore through the East Coast at the beginning of the month certainly didn't help an already slower sales month," said Caldwell.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

 

Sales Volume

January 2018 Forecast

January 2017

December 2017

Change from January 2017

Change from December 2017

GM

204,225

195,909

308,539

4.2%

-33.8%

Ford

158,704

171,186

240,910

-7.3%

-34.1%

Toyota

154,066

143,048

222,985

7.7%

-30.9%

Fiat Chrysler

129,127

152,218

171,946

-15.2%

-24.9%

Nissan

113,630

112,319

138,226

1.2%

-17.8%

Honda

107,218

106,380

149,317

0.8%

-28.2%

Hyundai/Kia

83,930

82,133

106,633

2.2%

-21.3%

VW/Audi

36,261

36,711

57,258

-1.2%

-36.7%

Industry

1,121,932

1,138,241

1,597,826

-1.4%

-29.8%

 

*NOTE: January 2018 had 25 selling days, January 2017 had 24, and December 2017 had 26.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in January 2018, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.5 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.1 million used vehicles will be sold in January 2018, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 2.7 million — or a SAAR of 38.7 million — in December).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

 

Market Share

January 2018 Forecast

January 2017

December 2017

Change from January 2017

Change from December 2017

GM

18.2%

17.2%

19.3%

1.0%

-1.1%

Ford

14.1%

15.0%

15.1%

-0.9%

-0.9%

Toyota

13.7%

12.6%

14.0%

1.2%

-0.2%

Fiat Chrysler

11.5%

13.4%

10.8%

-1.9%

0.7%

Nissan

10.1%

9.9%

8.7%

0.3%

1.5%

Honda

9.6%

9.3%

9.3%

0.2%

0.2%

Hyundai/Kia

7.5%

7.2%

6.7%

0.3%

0.8%

VW/Audi

3.2%

3.2%

3.6%

0.0%

-0.4%