Quicken Loans Study Shows Steadily Widening Gap Between Appraisal Values and Homeowners' Perception

Staff Report

Wednesday, March 13th, 2019

February marks the fourth consecutive month the gap between owner estimates and appraiser opinions of home value has widened, although the difference is still small at a national level. Appraisal values in February were an average of 0.5 percent lower than what homeowners expected, according to the National Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index.

Home value perception continues to vary at a metro level, but remains in a relatively tight band. Of the metro areas that had average appraisals lower than expected, none of them were more than 2 percent lower than the owner's estimate. At the other side of the spectrum, Boston is the outlier with the average appraisal 2.51 percent higher than what the homeowner expected – which could add more than $11,000 in equity based on local median home prices. Charlotte follows closely behind, surprising the average homeowner with an appraisal 2.10 percent higher than what they estimated. In total, 62 percent of the metro areas are reporting average appraisals higher than expected.

"Even though the home value perceptions are declining at a national level, the majority of metro areas are getting appraisals at, or above, what the homeowner expected," said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. "This is particularly exciting news at a time when we are seeing heighted interest in cash out refinances. More and more, owners are choosing to invest in their home by making improvements instead of moving. If appraisals are higher than expected an owner could find it more comfortable to do those home improvements they always had in the back of their mind."

Home values were practically frozen in the height of winter. The National Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI), the only measure of home value changes based solely on appraisals, reported the average appraisal increased a mere 0.05 percent in February. Annual growth continues to be strong, with year-over-year growth of 5.47 percent – increasing at a higher clip than in January.

The regional appraisal changes are a mixed bag. No region saw appraisal values swinging more than half a percent in either direction. Appraisals were an average of 0.33 and 0.50 percent higher in the West and the Northeast, respectively. However, values dipped 0.25 and 0.56 percent in the Midwest and the South. On the other hand, all regions have year-over-year growth in common – ranging from a 3.72 percent increase in the Midwest, to a 5.60 percent jump in the West.

"Home values are still making modest annual gains, despite being practically stagnant when measured monthly. What everyone has their eye on is what will happen as the spring selling season kicks off," said Banfield. "Home prices, and in turn home values, are mostly driven by the balance of how many homes are on the market and the volume of buyers vying for them. Most of the industry is expecting the demand will remain high, like in years past, but what remains to be seen is how many owners will choose to list their home – creating availability for both first time and move up buyers."

 

HVI

February 2019

 

January 2005 =
100

HVI

February 2019

vs.

January 2019

% Change

HVI

February 2019

vs.

February 2018

% Change

HPPI

February 2019

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI

February 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

National

Composite

112.00

+0.05%

+5.47%

-0.50%

-0.53%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Geographic

Regions

 

HVI

February 2019

 

January 2005 =
100

HVI

February 2019

vs.

January 2019

% Change

HVI

February 2019

vs.

February 2018

% Change

HPPI

February 2019

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

HPPI

February 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception
of Value*

West

135.5

+0.33%

+5.60%

-0.22%

-0.32%

South

113.74

-0.56%

+5.28%

-0.40%

-0.58%

Northeast

104.53

+0.50%

+4.80%

-0.48%

-0.68%

Midwest

91.17

-0.25%

+3.72%

-0.79%

-0.55%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 

Metropolitan

Areas

 

HPPI

February 2019

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner

Perception of
Value*

HPPI

January 2019

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of

Value*

HPPI

February 2018

 

Appraiser Value
vs. Homeowner
Perception of
Value*

Boston, MA

+2.51%

+2.76%

+2.00%

Charlotte, NC

+2.10%

+2.24%

+1.18%

Denver, CO

+1.98%

+2.17%

+2.22%

San Jose, CA

+1.63%

+1.91%

+2.71%

Minneapolis, MN

+1.50%

+1.70%

+1.20%

Seattle, WA

+1.48%

+1.64%

+2.01%

Dallas, TX

+1.09%

+1.13%

+0.58%

Las Vegas, NV

+1.02%

+1.39%

+2.72%

San Diego, CA

+0.93%

+0.86%

-0.07%

Atlanta, GA

+0.73%

+0.74%

+1.91%

Kansas City, MO

+0.67%

+0.94%

+1.30%

San Francisco, CA

+0.57%

+0.60%

+0.38%

Phoenix, AZ

+0.52%

+0.73%

+0.47%

Washington, D.C.

+0.46%

+0.46%

+0.84%

Sacramento, CA

+0.43%

+0.76%

+0.94%

Portland, OR

+0.26%

+0.26%

+1.01%

Los Angeles, CA

+0.06%

+0.10%

+0.81%

Riverside, CA

-0.02%

+0.02%

+0.75%

Houston, TX

-0.22%

-0.37%

-0.32%

New York, NY

-0.37%

-0.27%

+0.19%

Miami, FL

-0.40%

-0.46%

-0.58%

Detroit, MI

-0.46%

-0.35%

+0.83%

Tampa, FL

-0.48%

-0.23%

-0.85%

Baltimore, MD

-0.48%

-0.47%

-0.68%

Philadelphia, PA

-0.57%

-0.69%

+0.42%

Cleveland, OH

-0.70%

-0.59%

+0.43%

Chicago, IL

-0.79%

-0.62%

-0.55%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.