A gain of only 113,000 new jobs in January, on the heels of the even slower gain in December, likely sparks uncertainty about the strength of the labor market and direction of the overall U.S. economy. Still, the three-month average of private payroll increase is holding up at 168,000. Also, the revisions for 2013 show an adjustment of 509,000 more jobs by December than previously counted.

There is no doubt that inclement weather in December played a role, although construction jobs held up reasonably well in January. We expect that an eventual return to more normal weather conditions will allow job gains to rebound back towards their previous 180,000 – 200,000 trend pace.

The signals from the latest survey of purchasing managers and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index point to continued moderate job gains over the next few months, in an improving economic environment. Indeed, if these job gains, and the pay checks they generate, lift consumer sentiment and support spending on replacement vehicles and household appliances and furnishings, it will indeed be an improving economic environment. And if demand is improving, business will respond by investing so as to supply the goods and services in demand.