Accelerating Economy May be Derailed by Uncertainty in China & Emerging Markets

Press release from the issuing company

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

The economy appears to be entering the new year on a roll. However, just as signs appear to be pointing to an accelerating economy, clouds in China and emerging markets are creating uncertainty and threatening to derail growth in both the U.S. and abroad, according to the February edition of "the BRIEFING" report compiled by Transwestern.

This year is expected to be better for the Euro Zone, with Deutsche Bank projecting 1 percent growth compared to 0.4 percent contraction in 2013. The European Central Bank rate cut in November should continue to provide stimulus.

There was surprisingly little reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its monthly bond-buying program from $85 billion to $75 billion. This "tapering-lite" program combined with the projected economic growth is expected to create upward pressure on interest rates. Therefore, 2014 is going to be a bumpy road for stocks and bonds, particularly Treasuries and high-grade corporate bonds.

Meanwhile, economic growth should enhance commercial real estate fundamentals, improving cash flow and returns. On a relative basis, commercial real estate should remain very attractive to both debt and equity investors. Despite a rise in interest rates on 10-year Treasuries by nearly 100 basis points, commercial real estate sales ended the year with increased volumes and flat or lower capitalization rates.

More information can be found in Transwestern's February issue of "the BRIEFING," a monthly publication analyzing the national economy, capital markets and commercial real estate. Download the full report here.

"The BRIEFING" is an aggregation by Tom McNearney, Transwestern chief investment officer, of other articles and reports. McNearney leads Transwestern's capital market efforts for development and investment nationwide. McNearney also serves on the firm's investment committee and board of directors, and he directs the execution and expansion of the firm's principal investment activities across the country.