The Conference Board ETI Increases in January

Press release from the issuing company

Tuesday, February 11th, 2014

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased in January. The index now stands at 116.61, up from 115.62 (downwardly revised) in December. This represents a 6.0 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"Despite weak job reports in December and January, the Employment Trends Index is not signaling a slowdown in employment growth," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "We expect solid job growth and rapid declines in the unemployment rate to continue in the coming months."

January's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six of its eight components. In order from largest positive contributor to smallest, these were: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Temporary Employees, and Consumer Confidence Survey Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get."

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)**
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**