The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA) jointly published key findings from the 18^th Annual Emerging Risk Survey. The online questionnaires ask risk managers to rank current and emerging risks, and researchers have tracked the responses over the years to identify trends. In the latest survey, the top emerging risks are climate risks, disruptive technology and geopolitical instability.

 The survey uses four categories to measure risks as perceived by risk managers: top current risk, the leading five emerging risks, overall emerging risk and emerging risk combinations. 

Climate change dominated the top of the emerging risk lists since 2021, but in 2024, it shared the top spot with geopolitical instability (including civil wars). Furthermore, concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence have driven the upward trend of disruptive technology as an emerging risk. Cybersecurity and manipulation are particular hazards chosen by survey respondents.

Also, survey respondents had been citing the risk of failed and failing states increasingly less often since the 2010s, and trend changed in 2023, steeply increased since. On the other hand, the selection of asset price collapse risk and financial volatility as current or emerging risks have reached new lows in the latest survey findings.

Researchers fielded the survey in November 2024, and the top emerging risks chosen by risk managers in both surveys reflect recent events. A few examples include the continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, hurricanes Milton and Helene, the downward trend of inflation and interest rates.