The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US decreased by 0.1% in August 2026 to 99.5 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.2% in July. As a result, the LEI's six-month growth was –0.1% between February and August 2026, a much smaller rate of decline compared to –0.6% over the previous six months.

"The US LEI receded slightly in August, the first monthly decline since March of this year," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Four out of ten components fell compared to the previous month, with consumer expectations remaining a significant strain on the Index. Building permits also declined on a monthly basis, with decreases in both single- and multi-unit categories and across nearly all regions. The West was the only exception, recording a small increase in total permits. Due to the latest decline, the LEI's six-month growth rate turned back to slightly negative, suggesting a less certain economic environment ahead. The economy is still expanding, but growth is expected to slow. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP to increase at a 1.9% rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 downwardly revised from 1.9% to 1.8%."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.1% in August 2026 to 114.9 (2016=100), following 0.2% increases in both June and July. Overall, the CEI rose by 0.4% over the six months between February and August 2026, a slightly higher rate of growth than the 0.3% uptick over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions last month.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.2% in August 2026 to 120.6 (2016=100), after also rising by 0.2% in July. The LAG was up 0.9% between February and August 2026, tripling its 0.3% growth over the prior six months (August 2025 to February 2026).